This article or section contains information about a forthcoming election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches.

‹ 2005 •  members
United Kingdom general election All 650 seats of the House of Commons
on or before June 3, 2010
Leader		Gordon Brown	David Cameron	Nick Clegg
Party		Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Leader since		24 June 2007	6 December 2005	18 December 2007
Leader's seat		Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Witney	Sheffield Hallam
Last election		356 seats, 35.3%	198 seats, 32.3%	62 seats, 22.1%
Seats needed		–22	+118	+260

Under the provisions of the Parliament Acts of 1911 and 1949, the next United Kingdom general election must be held on or before 3 June 2010, barring exceptional circumstances.^[1] The previous general election in the UK was held on 5 May 2005.

The next general election will be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament. Parliament is dissolved by the Monarch, usually at the request of the Prime Minister. Dissolution can occur at any time within five years of the start of that parliament. However, since the Parliamentary term was set at five years, parliaments have most often sat for four years, with fresh elections being called at the start of the fifth year.^[2]

If the current Parliament follows the pattern of dissolution after four years, the next general election will occur in 2009. The elections of 2001 and 2005 were timed to coincide with local, regional or European elections, an effort to reduce costs and increase turnout. If that practice is also followed, the election will take place on 11 June 2009, to coincide with elections to the European Parliament and local elections in England and those planned for Northern Ireland.

The general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom for seats in the House of Commons. The number of seats will rise from 646 to 650 under the proposals made by the Boundary Commissions for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (the Scottish Boundary Commission made its last review prior to the 2005 general election).^[3][4]

The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost since 1997.^[5] The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics after losses in the 1990s, replacing Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hope to make gains from both sides; although they too would ideally wish to form a government, their more realistic ambition is to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. The Scottish National Party, encouraged by their victory in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, have set themselves a target of 20 MPs and will also be hoping to find themselves in a balance of power position. ^[6]

In November 2006 it was reported that activists for the governing Labour Party were being warned to prepare for a general election as early as 2008.^[7] In June 2007, in his speech accepting his appointment as leader of the Labour Party, Gordon Brown declared that he was appointing a member of the government as election co-ordinator, this was considered by some suggestive that he was intending to call an election earlier than expected.^[8] After much media speculation in early October 2007 that an election would be called for first week of November 2007,^[9] Gordon Brown announced in an interview with the BBCs Andrew Marr that he would not call an election 'in the next period', thought to mean 2007 or 2008.^[10] This announcement followed an opinion poll of marginal constituencies targeted by the Conservatives, which indicated that an election could result in the loss of the overall Labour majority,^[11] for after boundary changes the Labour Party only had to lose 21 seats to lose its majority.

Leadership of the main parties

David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005 replacing Michael Howard. Sir Menzies Campbell replaced Charles Kennedy (who resigned after his own admission of having an alcohol problem) as leader of the Lib Dems in March 2006. Sir Menzies resigned on 15 October 2007 with Nick Clegg being elected as his successor in December 2007. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party on 27 June 2007. The last time all three main parties went into a General Election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan as Labour leader, Margaret Thatcher for the Conservatives, and David Steel with the then Liberal Party, took to the polls.

The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Whereas Tony Blair courted the Lib Dems for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought to be more resistant to co-operation with the Lib Dems. David Cameron is attempting to make a pitch towards what is referred to as Middle England — the people who it is said have abandoned the Conservative Party since 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.^[12]

Menzies Campbell^[13] and Nick Clegg^[14] have continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce Proportional Representation.

See also Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2005, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2006, Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007, Timeline for the 2007 Labour Party (UK) Leadership elections and new Prime Minister, Labour Party (UK) deputy leadership election, 2007, Liberal Democrats leadership election, 2007

Other parties

There is one independent member of Parliament, Dai Davies, elected in a by-election in succession to fellow independent Peter Law, who died in April 2006. Since the last election, Clare Short and Bob Wareing have resigned the Labour whip, with Short planning to stand down at the next election and Wareing planning to contest his seat as an independent, having been deselected by the local CLP. Three Conservative members are no longer under the Conservative whip, although only one (Bob Spink) plans to stand at the next election, after having been deselected and defecting to the UK Independence Party^[15]. Given vocal groups of opposition within the main parties, it is always possible that the number of independent MPs will continue to increase as members are expelled or resign.

Many constituencies will be contested by other, smaller parties. Parties that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005 but have seats in the devolved assemblies or European Parliament include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party of England and Wales and the Scottish Green Party.

UKIP's leader, Roger Knapman, retired as leader on his term ending in 2006 with the leadership election on 12 September 2006 electing Nigel Farage as his replacement, with the defection of former Conservative MP Bob Spink to the party on 22 April 2008, UKIP now has a seat in the House of Commons for the first time.^[16] The Green Party of England and Wales has voted to have a position of leader for the first time; the first leadership election will declare on September 6. The post is being contested by Dr Caroline Lucas MEP, Prospective Parliamentary Candidate to contest the constituency of Brighton Pavilion, and Ashley Gunstock.

Parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen), the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Ulster Unionist Party from Northern Ireland; Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru from Scotland and Wales respectively; and RESPECT The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which hold one Parliamentary seat from England. In a hung parliament, MPs from smaller parties may be approached by one of the larger parties, in order to form a workable majority.

Small parties and independents that fail to win a seat can still have an effect on the outcome of an election (as can larger parties in seats in which they have no realistic prospect of winning) by taking votes off candidates who have a reasonable prospect of winning that particular seat.

See also List of political parties in the United Kingdom

Opinion polls, and analysis of votes in relation to numbers of seats

The fact that each MP is elected separately makes it impossible to directly interpret national shares of the vote into a clear outcome in United Kingdom general elections as it is unknown for all constituencies in a General Election to exactly reflect national trends. However, analysis of previous elections shows that approximate forecasting of results can be achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system is used by much of the media in the UK to assess electoral fortunes.

Due to the boundary changes which will come into effect at the election, the benchmarks for relating national vote share to the outcome in seats have been recalculated by a team led by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher. Figures in brackets represents the headline lead. Note that these figures do not take into account the performance of the Liberal Democrats, minor or nationalist parties, Independent candidates, or localised effects caused by a change in the distribution of the Labour and Conservative vote and that of other parties.

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.

The First Past the Post system seldom closely reflects actual vote shares across the parties, although sometimes individual parties achieve similar shares of votes and seats. In addition, it is not necessarily the party with the most votes that ends up the largest grouping, and since 1935 no single party has achieved more than 50% in a UK General Election. Numbers of seats won reflect a large and complex interaction of factors of distribution of votes attained by parties. With a widely distributed vote not concentrated in particular areas, a party is at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with very strong localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

See also Exit poll, Opinion poll, Opinion polling in the next United Kingdom general election, Spoiler effect, Tactical voting, Voting system, Wasted vote

MPs who have announced their retirement at the next General Election

[] Labour

• John Austin — Erith and Thamesmead, announced 31 July 2008^[17]
• John Battle — Leeds West, announced 20 October 2006^[18]
• Richard Caborn — Sheffield Central, announced 13 September 2007^[19]
• Michael Clapham — Barnsley West and Penistone^[20]
• Colin Challen — Morley and Rothwell, announced 30 January 2007^[21]
• Frank Cook — Stockton North^[22]
• Ann Cryer — Keighley, announced 21 August 2008^[23]
• John Cummings — Easington, announced 9 October 2006^[24]
• Janet Dean — Burton, announced 20 June 2007^[25]
• Bill Etherington — Sunderland North, announced 9 December 2006^[26]
• Neil Gerrard — Walthamstow, announced 23 February 2007^[27]
• John Grogan — Selby, announced 10 October 2006^[28]
• Keith Hill — Streatham, announced 23 May 2007^[29]
• Brian Iddon — Bolton South East, announced 5 October 2006^[30]
• Lynne Jones — Birmingham Selly Oak, announced January 2007^[31]
• David Lepper — Brighton Pavilion, announced 19 September 2006^[32]
• Rosemary McKenna — Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, announced 3 August 2007^[33]
• Bob Marshall-Andrews — Medway, announced 17 July 2007^[34]
• Chris McCafferty — Calder Valley, announced 7 March 2007^[35]
• Chris Mullin — Sunderland South, announced 10 May 2008^[36]
• Doug Naysmith — Bristol North West, announced 26 January 2007^[37]
• Bill Olner — Nuneaton, announced 25 March 2007^[38]
• John Prescott — Hull East, announced 27 August 2007^[39]
• Ken Purchase — Wolverhampton North East, announced 27 October 2007^[40]
• John Reid — Airdrie and Shotts, announced 15 September 2007^[41]
• Mohammad Sarwar — Glasgow Central, announced 21 June 2007^[42]
• Alan Simpson — Nottingham South, announced 18 February 2007^[43]
• Ian Stewart — Eccles^[44]
• Gavin Strang — Edinburgh East, announced 26 November 2007^[45], but reversed his decision 31 March 2008.^[46] He announced that he will stand down on 27 June 2008, after all.^[47]
• David Taylor — North West Leicestershire, announced 13 May 2008^[48]
• Mark Todd — South Derbyshire, announced 21 September 2007^[49]
• Des Turner — Brighton Kemptown, announced 23 October 2006^[50]
• Rudi Vis — Finchley and Golders Green, announced 28 May 2008^[51]
• Tony Wright — Cannock Chase, announced 21 July 2008^[52]
• Alan Williams — Swansea West^[53]

Conservative

• Peter Atkinson — Hexham, announced 19 June 2008.^[54]
• Tim Boswell — Daventry, announced 31 March 2006.^[55]
• Angela Browning — Tiverton and Honiton, announced 17 November 2006.^[56]
• John Butterfill — Bournemouth West, announced 17 March 2008.^[57]
• Michael Howard — Folkestone and Hythe, announced 17 March 2006.^[58]
• Michael Jack — Fylde, announced 14 March 2008.^[59]
• Andrew Pelling — Croydon Central, announced 4 December 2007^[60]
• Michael Mates — East Hampshire, announced 24 November 2006.^[61]
• Malcolm Moss — North East Cambridgeshire, announced 6 September 2007^[62]
• Michael Spicer — West Worcestershire, announced 24 March 2006.^[63]
• Ann Widdecombe — Maidstone and The Weald, announced 7 October 2007.^[64]

Liberal Democrats

• Colin Breed — South East Cornwall, announced 9 October 2007^[65]
• Paul Keetch — Hereford, announced 16 November 2006^[66]
• Mark Oaten — Winchester, announced 25 July 2006^[67]
• Matthew Taylor — Truro and St Austell, announced 17 January 2007.^[68]
• Phil Willis — Harrogate and Knaresborough, announced 18 May 2007.^[69]

Other parties

• Alex Salmond (Scottish National Party) — Banff and Buchan, announced 15 January 2006.^[70]
• Clare Short (Independent; elected as Labour MP, resigned the whip 20 October 2006) — Birmingham Ladywood, announced 14 September 2006.^[71][72]
• Derek Conway (Independent conservative; Conservative Party whip withdrawn) — Old Bexley and Sidcup, announced 30 January 2008^[73]

Boundary changes

Main article: Boundary change recommendations for the next UK general election

The current list of constituencies likely to be used in the next United Kingdom general election (in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.

The results of the 2005 election.

The four national Boundary Commissions are required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible.

Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so the boundaries used in the 2005 General Election in Scotland will still apply at the next UK general election; England, Wales and Northern Ireland are due to have their first boundary changes in parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 General Election.

Constituencies in Wales were reviewed by the Boundary Commission for Wales. The recommendations were laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005 and approved on 11 April 2006.^[74] The new constituencies will apply from the next general election.

In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd: Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England.

The Boundary Commission for England completed and sent its recommendations to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs on 31 October 2006. The changes, which included four additional seats, were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 13 June 2007.^[75]

In 2006 the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission proposed that minor changes to its eastern constituencies. The changes were given effect by Statutory Instrument on 11 June 2008.^[76] For the first time, these changes include the splitting of an electoral ward between two constituencies.

Based on studies using ward by ward data from Local Elections and the 2005 General Election, it is believed that boundary changes implemented for the expected General Election notionally reduce the number of Labour seats by nine, given that there are to be four more seats in the next parliament this notionally reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 44.

Top 10 marginals for main parties

Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies" compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.^[77] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.^[78] The various estimates differ in detail.

Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where the party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. A complete list for each party is currently being compiled in party order starting with the Conservatives which can be found here, with the top 50 Labour here, top 50 Liberal Democrat and top 25 Plaid and SNP targets to follow.

N.B. The 'Winning Party' is notional (except in the case of Scottish constituencies), calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat, and may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 General Election.

Conservative targets

Labour targets

Liberal Democrat targets

Scottish Nationalist targets (SNP)

Welsh Nationalist targets (Plaid Cymru)

Notes